Is the humanoid robot bubble bursting?
Oct 16, 2025
Kaley Ubellacker
Happy Wednesday!
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Good Reads 📖
For the rushed reader …
Startups are leaning on tender offers as a strategic tool to reward employees, retain talent, and reset valuations, according to new research from NewView Capital shared with PitchBook.
Solid-state batteries are edging closer to reality, promising EVs that charge in minutes, go hundreds of miles, and avoid flammability risks, but commercial adoption is still years away.
Despite the hype around humanoid robots and massive valuations, experts think we may be entering a humanoid robot bubble, where the market is outpacing reality.
For the less rushed reader …
Meating shareholders halfway
Startups are giving equity a little tender loving care. Startups are leaning on tender offers as a strategic tool to reward employees, retain talent, and reset valuations, according to new research from NewView Capital shared with PitchBook. While high-profile deals from unicorns like OpenAI, Ramp, and Stripe capture headlines, 54% of recent tender offers involved equity sales between $25 million and $100 million. Companies are now staying private for 13 to 14 years on average, and these offers are becoming a routine part of company building. This is especially true in AI startups where they are used to attract new hires and provide early liquidity to investors. More than half of 2025’s deals have included premiums over prior valuations, reflecting startups’ efforts to regain value without diluting equity, while most employees sell only a fraction of their vested shares under minimum-tenure rules. Tender offers mean one thing for founders: winner winner chicken dinner.
Guilty as charged
These batteries are still figuring out how to conduct themselves. Solid-state batteries are edging closer to reality, promising EVs that charge in minutes, go hundreds of miles, and avoid flammability risks, but commercial adoption is still years away. Thanks to breakthroughs in superionic solid electrolytes, researchers can now move lithium ions as quickly as in liquid cells, enabling higher energy density, lighter weight, and safer operation. However, the challenge is scaling manufacturing: sulfide and oxide-based solid-state cells are brittle, sensitive to humidity, and require specialized handling, making gigafactories expensive and complex. While lithium-ion dominates today thanks to 30 years of optimization, startups and automakers are investing billions in solid-state research, betting these batteries will charge ahead and be the next-generation power source for EVs, drones, and even electrified aviation.
Plugging into reality
They might stand tall, but humanoids are falling short. Despite the hype around humanoid robots and massive valuations, experts think we may be entering a humanoid robot bubble, where the market is outpacing reality. iRobot founder Rodney Brooks recently published an essay critical of the billions in venture funding poured into companies like Figure, noting that humanoids still can’t master dexterity, leaving them essentially impractical. Tesla’s Optimus bot, initially announced in 2021 and slated for 2023, only debuted in 2024 with humans controlling many movements. It’s undeniable that startups like Figure, valued at $39 billion in September, and Hugging Face, which sold $1 million in Reachy Mini preorders just five days after launch, show demand. However, safety, high complexity, and unclear timelines remain hurdles. Experts predict that humanoids with human-like mobility won’t be widely adopted for at least a decade, with future robots likely relying on wheels or other nonhuman designs. It’s hard for humanoid robots to walk the talk, if they haven’t even mastered the walk.
Market Stirrings 🚩
Here's what the week looked like in pre-seed:
$14.7M
10
Data aggregated from proprietary research and Crunchbase; valuation estimate based on 10-20% ownership stake.
NO BIG DEAL?
Q3 saw the lowest total deal count in five years. Even AI, while still outperforming most sectors, experienced a 28% drop in deal volume year over year, though it remains 8% higher than at the start of the AI boom in 2022. Meanwhile, healthtech faced the sharpest decline, down 74% from its peak in 2021.
agtech
LiveGrow Bio - Spore-tacular solutions.
LiveGrow Bio raised $100k from the Fuse Fund. LiveGrow Bio is building a microbial fermentation and formulation platform that makes biopesticides and biostimulants at a fraction of current costs, revolutionizing agriculture.
SaaS
Cookiy AI - The recipe for success.
Cookiy AI raised $7 million including participation from Converge, GoAhead Ventures, Liquid 2 Ventures, and UpHonest Capital. Cookiy AI is building an Agentic Voice AI platform that talks with consumers like humans do, turning conversations into actionable insights.
AI
Search Party - Putting brands on the r(AI)dar.
Search Party raised $3.5 million led by FUSE. Search Party is creating a platform that helps brands understand, track, and influence how LLMs represent them.
JOBORTUNITIES
| Hardware Test Engineer | - Copper:
Rethinking the induction stove and making kitchen electrification more accessible than ever. Picture a fossil-free future, without sacrificing aesthetics.
| Full Stack Software Engineer | - OneImaging:
Envisioning the future of transportation beyond cars and into the realm of personal electric vehicles. Its first product, P1, is the ultimate tool for city navigation.
Outro🚪
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