Apr 16, 2026
Kaley Ubellacker
Market Stirrings 🚩
Here's what the week looked like in pre-seed:
$6.4M
11
Data aggregated from proprietary research and Crunchbase; valuation estimate based on 10-20% ownership stake.
BEWARE THE IDES OF MARCH
March pre-seed capital raised fell to a five-year low. Although additional stealth rounds may still roll in, current data shows funding is down nearly 50% year-over-year and about 25% below its low in 2021.
Good Reads 📖
For the rushed reader …
Stanford released its 2026 AI Index, illustrating how top AI models are improving at breakneck speed, nearing or surpassing human-level performance in some areas.
One of the best capitalized fusion startups, Inertia, signed three agreements with Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory to commercialize the only fusion approach achieved by net energy gain.
Battery recycling startup Ascend Elements filed for Chapter 11, marking a sharp downturn for a company that raised over $500M.
For the less rushed reader …
If it feels like AI is modeling fast, Stanford just confirmed it. Stanford released its 2026 AI Index, illustrating how top AI models are improving at breakneck speed, nearing or surpassing human-level performance in some areas. Adoption is outpacing both the internet and PCs, and companies are generating revenue faster than any prior tech wave. However, some cracks are showing: benchmarks are breaking, transparency is shrinking, and real-world performance still lags behind test scores. The U.S. and China are now effectively neck-and-neck; the U.S. leads in capital and infrastructure while China dominates in research output and robotics. The competition is raising the stakes for both innovation and policy. For founders, the opportunity is more than just building better models; it’s solving the layers around them, like deployment, evaluation, and real-world utility. Claude it what you want, but it’s a tight race.
This is the power play of the week. One of the best capitalized fusion startups, Inertia, signed three agreements with Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory to commercialize the only fusion approach achieved by net energy gain. With its recent $450M Series A, the company is building on its work at the National Ignition Facility: a laboratory complete with 192 lasers that compress fuel pellets to trigger fusion. The startup now aims to make the process fast, efficient, and repeatable enough for the grid. The partnership gives Inertia access to nearly 200 patents, potentially putting it ahead in a crowded tech space. Fusion is the energy industry’s favorite “almost there” story, and hopefully this is the spark it needed.
Not even the scrappiest startups can always make it work. Battery recycling startup Ascend Elements filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, marking a sharp downturn for a company that raised over $500M. The final blow was a canceled Department of Energy grant. However, the deeper issue was spiraling lithium, nickel, and cobalt prices, making recycled materials far less competitive than cheaper imports. Despite strong backing from players like Honda and SK On and technology capable of recovering up to 98% of battery materials, Ascend’s economics unraveled just as it scaled. The company was in the middle of developing a massive Kentucky facility, and it didn’t pivot in time. The bankruptcy highlights a broader climate tech reality: even well-capitalized, policy-aligned startups can falter if market conditions and government timelines don’t cooperate. The tech functioned, but it was the business plans that couldn’t hold their charge.
Fire Up the Pre-Seeds🔥
Highlights from this week’s pre-seed raises:
Outro🚪
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Thanks for reading, and see you next week!
